Interestingly, this is true even if the participant is aware of this bias. People routinely produce plans that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios.

In product design, this is problematic when asking users to complete a process (such as a lengthy sign-up), which goes on longer than they had anticipated.

Overconfidence creates churn.

Conversion rates

• If a process is taking much longer than the user anticipated, they may just give up.

Input quality

• The user may not give up, but instead rush their answers, or just select default options.

Interestingly, this is true even if the participant is aware of this bias. People routinely produce plans that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios.

In product design, this is problematic when asking users to complete a process (such as a lengthy sign-up), which goes on longer than they had anticipated.

Overconfidence creates churn.

Conversion rates

• If a process is taking much longer than the user anticipated, they may just give up.

Input quality

• The user may not give up, but instead rush their answers, or just select default options.