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The Planning Fallacy
Psychology used by:
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People are usually overly-optimistic when estimating the time required to complete a task.
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Introduction
Interestingly, this is true even if the participant is aware of this bias. People routinely produce plans that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios.
In product design, this is problematic when asking users to complete a process (such as a lengthy sign-up), which goes on longer than they had anticipated.
Overconfidence creates churn.
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Potential impacts
Conversion rates
- If a process is taking much longer than the user anticipated, they may just give up.
Input quality
- The user may not give up, but instead rush their answers, or just select default options.
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Written by Peter Ramsey
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